Pipeline Forecast & Coverage Calculator
What it does. Computes a weighted sales forecast, pipeline coverage ratio, gap to target, and how much net-new pipeline you need to create to hit the number. Replaces the "3× coverage" rule of thumb with math grounded in your own win rate.
When to use it
Every Monday for the current quarter, and during planning to size the pipeline-generation target for marketing and SDRs. It is the single most useful tool for aligning sales and marketing on the same number.
What you'll need
- Quota or revenue target for the period
- Current pipeline value, by stage
- Stage-by-stage win rates from your CRM (or sensible defaults)
- Average sales cycle
How the math works
Weighted forecast = Σ (deal value × stage win rate). Required coverage = 1 ÷ overall win rate (a 25% win rate means you need 4× coverage, not 3×). Gap = target − weighted forecast already closed/committed. Net-new pipeline needed = gap ÷ (overall win rate × in-period close rate). The calculator surfaces all four numbers and shows which stage is most starved.
How to read the output
If coverage is below the required ratio, you have a pipeline-creation problem (marketing/SDR). If coverage is fine but weighted forecast falls short, you have a conversion problem (sales). The calculator points at the right team rather than a generic "we need more pipeline."
Related tools & playbooks
Pair this with the Pipeline Coverage & Forecasting Playbook, the ICP Fit Scorer, and the Demand Gen Playbook.
FAQ
Why isn't 3× coverage the right rule?
3× assumes a 33% win rate. Most B2B teams win 15–25%, so they need 4–7× coverage. Using 3× for everyone systematically misses target.
Should I include all stages in coverage?
Only stages with a meaningful close probability in the period. Early-stage exploratory deals belong in a separate "build pipeline" metric.
How often should I rerun this?
Weekly during the quarter, plus a full re-baseline at the start of each new period.