Pipeline Forecast & Coverage Calculator

What it does. Computes a weighted sales forecast, pipeline coverage ratio, gap to target, and how much net-new pipeline you need to create to hit the number. Replaces the "3× coverage" rule of thumb with math grounded in your own win rate.

When to use it

Every Monday for the current quarter, and during planning to size the pipeline-generation target for marketing and SDRs. It is the single most useful tool for aligning sales and marketing on the same number.

What you'll need

Quota or revenue target for the period
Current pipeline value, by stage
Stage-by-stage win rates from your CRM (or sensible defaults)
Average sales cycle

How the math works

Weighted forecast = Σ (deal value × stage win rate). Required coverage = 1 ÷ overall win rate (a 25% win rate means you need 4× coverage, not 3×). Gap = target − weighted forecast already closed/committed. Net-new pipeline needed = gap ÷ (overall win rate × in-period close rate). The calculator surfaces all four numbers and shows which stage is most starved.

How to read the output

If coverage is below the required ratio, you have a pipeline-creation problem (marketing/SDR). If coverage is fine but weighted forecast falls short, you have a conversion problem (sales). The calculator points at the right team rather than a generic "we need more pipeline."

Related tools & playbooks

Pair this with the Pipeline Coverage & Forecasting Playbook, the ICP Fit Scorer, and the Demand Gen Playbook.

FAQ

Why isn't 3× coverage the right rule?

3× assumes a 33% win rate. Most B2B teams AAJ works with win 15–25%, and 4–7× coverage is simply 1 divided by that win rate. AAJ's working band from client engagements — not a published benchmark. Using 3× for everyone systematically misses target.

Should I include all stages in coverage?

Only stages with a meaningful close probability in the period. Early-stage exploratory deals belong in a separate "build pipeline" metric.

How often should I rerun this?

Weekly during the quarter, plus a full re-baseline at the start of each new period.